Matching Five Possible Draft Picks to Current Penguins Slot

CHICAGO — The Pittsburgh Penguins have recently developed a maddening habit of winning games or at least collecting points. The Boston Bruins waved the white flag at the NHL trade deadline and have been in a race to the bottom ever since. Boston will most likely get a top-five pick in a so-so draft.

The Penguins?

They’ve gone from the fifth overall draft slot to the eighth, including a Sidney Crosby-driven win over powerhouse Dallas and a point Thursday night against the smoking hot St. Louis Blues. With five games remaining, the Penguins appear comfortably in the eighth spot, but with a couple of Philadelphia Flyers and Buffalo Sabres wins, the Penguins could get back to the sixth overall slot.

But the Penguins don’t appear to be in any mood to lose games to improve their draft stock, either.

Of course, there is the draft lottery, which could vault them to first or second overall, but from the sixth to eighth overall spot, they’ve got about a 6-7% chance of improving.

While we let the Mars Rover folks at CMU do the quantum computations on the Penguins’ actual chance to win one of the top two spots, we can begin matching up potential picks to the eighth spot.

For now, let’s assume the Penguins and their effervescent rookies Rutger McGroarty and Ville Koivunen will keep plugging away and doing the unthinkable: trying hard.

There seems to be a significant drop after the fifth or sixth overall pick. Boston College’s James Hagens has fallen from first to somewhere between second and sixth. If Hagens is available to the Penguins, general manager Dubas should immediately begin screaming, “We take Hagens! Hagens, we take Hagens!” The 2025 NHL Draft will be held virtually, so the drama will be much less than Dubas sprinting to the podium for the selection.

In a more plausible reality, Anton Frondell has drawn sharply mixed scouting reports, with some touting him as nearly NHL-ready and others essentially reporting he’s a prime bust candidate.

Perhaps if Frondell is selected by another team but is a bust, that means he’ll be a Penguins forward, but not until a trade in 2029?

Frondell is among the draft prospects the Penguins could have on the board at No. 8.

In assembling our list, we have to be choosy on which scout or scouting services to rely upon. We rely on rankings from Bob McKenzie, Craig Button, Smaht Scouting, and Jason Bukala from Sportsnet.

There is one name that, if he falls to the Penguins, should be a slam-dunk pick. However, in recent years, we’ve seen the NHL draft become a crapshoot after the first pick. For example, does anyone remember presumptive No. 1 pick Shane Wright falling to No. 4 and glaring at the Montreal Canadiens brass as he walked the stage in 2022?

Not only did Montreal pass, but so did two other teams before Seattle snagged him (as it turns out, Arizona got it right by selecting Logan Cooley at No. 3, and Montreal didn’t do poorly with Juraj Slavkovsky first overall).

Also, we’ll wait to see if the Penguins receive the New York Rangers’ 2025 or 2026 first-round choice before we begin matching them to that pick.

There is a clear drop after the top five, maybe six picks. After that, it’s a dice roll. The Penguins’ growing pipeline has ballooned in terms of depth, but there’s not much high-end talent yet. PHN believes the team could do well to take a few gambles with big talent to find those impact players rather than safe choices (Tristan Broz is the only other prospect currently in the system who might be a middle-six forward with some impact potential).

But they may have the opposite view.

So, here we go.

3 Penguins Draft Prospects to Watch

1. Roger McQueen, C, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)

Our top choice, with one big caveat: Health.

This season, the jumbo prospect dealt with a severe back injury, which has robbed him of most of his draft-eligible season. He’s 6-foot-5 and around 200 pounds. Last week, Dubas said he wants to improve at center, and McQueen could be a quick addition to the Penguins lineup—if he’s healthy.

Summarizing the myriad scouting reports, McQueen can skate well, though, like former Penguins forward Nick Bjugstad, it doesn’t always look like he’s moving until you realize how much distance he’s covered in a short time.

He’s got vision and a decent shot. Oh, and he plays with a bit of an edge. Most scouts projected him as definite top-six material.

This season was a challenge for the big pivot. After missing more than four months, he returned to the Wheat Kings’ lineup on March 4, and after a few games to get his legs back, he popped for eight points (2-6-8) in six games. He only had one point (1-0-1) in three playoff games, but given the circumstances, it seems wise to judge McQueen on potential, not his recovery games.

However, back injuries are scary, and teams are leery. Some scouts told McKenzie they would pass (but that could be subterfuge).

One factor to note: McQueen is playing in the Western Hockey League. The Penguins have recently drafted heavily from the WHL, making their last four top picks from the league, including Owen Pickering, Brayden Yager, Harrison Brunicke, and Tanner Howe (Pickering was selected by former GM Ron Hextall, but the latter three were the Dubas regime).

2. Anton Frondell, LW/C, Djurgardens (Swedish Elite League)

An inconsistent year. A horribly slow start and a furious finish. At 6-foot, 179 pounds, his numbers in the Swedish Elite League look good. He has 25 points (11-14-25) in 29 games. He can shoot and distribute the puck. The Penguins might fall in love with his ability to play in the low zone (at least in Sweden), and create in tight spaces.

He also knows his way around the defensive zone.

He’s either a quick study left-wing at the NHL or a bit of a project in the middle. Most services have him in the top six, but a few have dumped him into the high teens. There is some risk with this pick.

He played only two games at the World Juniors with two points (1-1-2), but he played in 14 games on the U18 Team Sweden.

If he’s available at No. 8, he’s at least a 50/50 bet.

3. Jake O’Brien, C, Brantford Bulldogs   (OHL)

He most certainly will be on the board at No. 8 as his rankings are generally No. 7-12, though Bukala is not a fan, ranking him 23rd. Here’s the phrase that McKenzie quoted scouts as using: “Elite hockey IQ.”

Scouts note that O’Brien has noticeably picked up a step this season, and he’s got projectable size, too. Right now, he’s 6-foot-2 and less than 180. He’ll need to beef up.

The Penguins like hockey IQ. See also Rutger McGroarty and Ville Koivunen. Harrison Brunicke probably falls into that category, too.

O’Brien has shown dynamic offensive ability and playmaking smarts, and he doesn’t get lost in the defensive zone. His performance has upped his projections from the middle or late first round to the top 10. He played for Team Canada at the U18s Hlinka-Gretzky Cup but was pointless in five games. In 66 OHL games, he popped for 98 points, including 32 goals.

There is some concern that he padded his stats on the power play, but he’s got 32 goals and 98 points in 66 games. He also had four points (2-2-4) in four OHL playoff games.

4. Carter Bear, LW, Everett Silvertips (WHL)

A lacerated Achilles’ tendon hampered his performance in the second half of the season. However, he is something the Penguins very much need: a physical, competitive, net-front player who can finish. He’s an OK skater with good hands and hockey sense, but he’s not a physically imposing player at just 6-foot, 176 pounds.

A few protein shakes with the Penguins’ nutritionists, who have helped Owen Pickering add about 30 pounds and Rutger McGroarty solidify an already solid base, should help Bear, who will also be on the board at No. 8 unless someone takes a big reach.

Bear is generally rated in the 8-12 range. If there’s a downside, it’s that he hasn’t scored well in the national tournaments. He only registered one assist in five games with Team WHL of the Manitoba Cup.

5. Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

A big … BIG … right-handed Czechian defenseman who has played well in the World Juniors, registering three assists in four games. With the Seattle Thunderbirds, Mrtka has 32 points (3-29-32) in 42 games.

He’s obviously not a goal scorer, but he is 6-foot-6 and 207 pounds. He, too, will need to gain weight, but scouts like his defensive awareness. He has a good gap at the defensive blue line and knows how to use his long stick to take away passing lanes. He skates well and knows how to move the puck.

Right-handed defensemen have become the Babe Ruth rookie card of player acquisition. As evidence, the Penguins are currently rolling with Ryan Shea and Vladislav Kolyachonok on the right side behind Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang. Mrtka’s rankings are little soft, and he slots in the 10-16 range.

Perhaps he’ll be there if the Penguins get the Rangers pick?

No Thanks?

Caleb Desnoyers, C, Moncton Wildcats (OHL)

Highly rated by most by many services but dropped to the bottom of the first round by a few, too.

If you want to talk about wild variances in rankings, Desnoyers is the guy. His rankings range from third overall to 22nd. The 6-foot-2 center is still slight at 172 pounds, but he does draw high praise for compete level, responsibility in all three zones, and speed.

Scouts note his production on the rush. So, is he a top-five pick, a diamond in the rough? Or is he is a massive reach at No. 8?

McKenzie said scouts call him a safe pick, “a Philip Danault type.”

With the Penguins’s prospect pool lacking high-end talent down the middle, a “safe” pick third-line center type is for teams that don’t need to hit a home run.

Victor Eklund, LW, Djurgardens

Frondell’s teammate. How much is Eklund’s exemplary performance a product of the player, and how much is a result of Frondell’s distribution?

Eklund averaged several shots per game — he wasn’t shy about shooting, but that only happens with a talented center, and he relies on perimeter-in shots and play. As a general rule, our feeling is that players who find success on the outside need exceptional speed or sharp teeth to transition well to the NHL because the AHL is full of talented players who can score on non-NHL goalies from 30 feet but will never find that success at the top level.

Left-Handed Defensemen

The organization will soon have Harrison Brunicke on the right side and no one else. Lefties are much easier to acquire, sign, or keep. There are a few left-handed defensemen rated in the top 15, but Dubas would ignore the acquisition costs of a right-hander at his own peril.

PHN Analysis

McQueen is the great question mark. We’ll assume teams will get a good look at the medical reports and had sharp eyes on him in the WHL playoffs. If the Penguins team is satisfied with his health, take him, take him, TAKE HIM.

A healthy McQueen is the draft-class home run the Penguins need; a Tage Thompson type

We also like O’Brien quite a bit. Smart players figure it out.