Penguins Over/Under Game: Crosby Goals, Wins, Rookie Debuts

Will Sidney Crosby score 35 goals? Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win 42 games? Regardless of what the Las Vegas oddsmakers say, autumn hope springs eternal for hockey players and fans alike.

Given the numerous possible Penguins line combinations, it’s not yet easy to gauge the Penguins’ identity accurately. However, we suspect that with newly acquired Rutger McGroarty, free agent signee Blake Lizotte, and moving Noel Acciari to the wing, the Penguins will have more grit than they’ve had in years.

In anxious anticipation of the 2024-25 NHL season, we’re going to play the Over/Under game, both with an assist from sports betting experts and gut feelings; we’ll lay the foundation for more serious projections over the next few weeks.

Penguins Over/Under

Sidney Crosby, 35 Goals: Under

Age is merely a number for Sidney Crosby, who sets the standard for hard work. Crosby has exceeded 30 goals in three seasons running and poured in a truly impressive 42 goals last season.

However, 35 goals is a high number, and he won’t have Jake Guentzel or an equivalent riding shotgun this season. That projection is no slight on Drew O’Connor or whoever might fill the LW spot beside Crosby, but none will equal Guentzel. Expect a bit of a dip in offensive totals for the greatest player of the 21st century.

One possible caveat is that new assistant coach David Quinn will oversee the power play. If Quinn can halt the multi-year slide of the Penguins’ man advantage, Crosby’s goal total and offensive numbers could equal last season.

We like Crosby in the 30-goal, 85-point range, which is not too shabby. We also believe Crosby is owed a Hart Trophy before he retires, so if he exceeds those totals and wills the Penguins to a playoff spot, expect us to push for the award.

NHL Debuts, 3: Under

The waiver wire should help the Penguins clear some space. There are 19 forwards with NHL potential and only 13, maybe 14, spots to fill (but keeping 14 is not something coach Mike Sullivan has done often). The influx of young talent into the organization means a few players will get their nerve-racking rookie lap before a game this season.

But how many?

McGroarty seems to be a given. If not on opening night, he’ll play in the NHL at some point this season, but after that, it gets difficult to project because the team’s success will play a role. If the Penguins are out of the playoff chase, we could see several kids get their first taste. If the Penguins are in the playoff fight, then maybe none beyond McGroarty.

Statistically speaking, injuries are likely at the goalie position, so Joel Blomqvist will probably see some time in the NHL.

Tristan Broz and 2022 first-round pick Owen Pickering are next up. We think Broz could be a short-term call-up, but would the Penguins put him ahead of Jonathan Gruden or a demoted vet? We also think Pickering needs a good bit of marinating at the AHL before he’s ready to face NHL competition.

Read More: Penguins Prospects: Scouting Blomqvist, Broz; How Close to Ready (+)

We’re taking the under. But if things aren’t good by February, all bets are off.

There is the possibility of more Penguins trades, bringing more prospects, too.

Also, one player we underestimated this summer was defenseman Harrison Brunicke. The Penguins’ second-round pick (44th overall) has a smooth, poised game. He could shock everyone and make a pitch for the NHL roster–he’s got some young Olli Maatta/John Marino vibes.

Evgeni Malkin, 72 games played: Over

It seems the big guys have gotten healthier as they’ve gotten older. Whether through the miracle of sports science or pure luck, Evgeni Malkin and Crosby have played in all 82 games in each of the last two seasons—a first in their careers.

If only they could have done so in their prime.

While Malkin is visibly not the player he was a few years ago before knee surgery and age knocked at his door, he’s remained healthy, and nothing is lingering that suggests he’s trying to outrun injury.

Evgeni Malkin, 70 points: Over

We also like Malkin’s connection with Michael Bunting and Rickard Rakell. Bunting’s arrival in the Guentzel trade greatly improved the Malkin line.

Last season, Malkin scored 27 goals but registered only 67 points. It was a frustrating season as his gallop seemed to disappear, and linemates failed time and again to bury offensive chances. Reilly Smith was well below career norms and expectations, eventually losing his spot beside Malkin.

However, Bunting seemed to cure those ills late in the season.

We also like the odds of the Penguins’ power play not reeking like a dead fish hidden under the driver’s seat in the middle of summer (a classic hockey prank). Chemistry and a remotely competent power play means Malkin will score more than 70 points.

Bryan Rust, 30 goals: Under

Rust has never hit the 30-goal mark, and despite being the primary offensive weapon beside Crosby, we don’t like his chances this season. Injuries have plagued Rust, who hasn’t played more than 72 games, just one in his career (but he didn’t miss any games in the shortened 56-game COVID season of 2020-21).

He does many things well, but we’re betting against the magic number.

Rutger McGroarty, 15 Goals: Over

We like the potential here, and we’re also betting coach Mike Sullivan gives the kid some leeway to make mistakes and learn. We’ll take the 15 goals.

Erik Karlsson, 60 Points: Over

Hope? Delusional thinking?

After scoring 100 points in the 2022-23 season and winning the Norris Trophy, Erik Karlsson asked to be traded to a winner. The Penguins were the lucky team, but things didn’t go so well in his first season. The power play cratered to 15.2%, and Karlsson registered merely 56 points (11-45-56) in 82 games.

Surely, the Penguins’ power play will rebound, if only slightly. Surely, Karlsson will find a groove and feel more comfortable being his puck-carrying, rush-leading, whirlwind self. We suspect Quinn will help head coach Mike Sullivan devise more Karlsson-friendly schemes, as Quinn was Karlsson’s head coach during the Norris season in San Jose.

Penguins Wins, 42: Push

Actually, we like them at just about 42 wins. Their overtime success or failure will go a long way toward determining their win totals. Last season, they stunk in the third period and overtime, winning just 38 games with 12 OT losses.

They have blown an excessive number of third-period leads over the last two seasons, too.

The trend cannot continue, and we think the positive kinetic energy from last season’s late charge and additional grit, combined with an energetic fourth line, will bear some positive benefits. We don’t think the Penguins will suddenly become a shutdown team because their blue line remains sketchy defensively, but the team should be better.

The formula is simple: hold a few more leads, win a few more games, score a few more power-play goals, and avoid a few more overtime periods. If they do so, a playoff berth is possible. The Detroit Red Wings won 41 games last season and should have earned a playoff berth until a late collapse, finishing three points ahead of the Penguins with 91 points.

This season, 42 wins will be the minimum for a playoff spot, and we think the Penguins will be among the gaggle of teams fighting for the second wild card for a third consecutive season.