5 Penguins Thoughts: Finding Ways to Win, Bad D-Pairing

The Pittsburgh Penguins’ run to the franchise’s 17th consecutive playoff berth received a heaping helping of generosity over the weekend. The trailing Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators posted losses, as did the formerly first wild-card-holding New York Islanders.

The needle on the Penguins’ playoff spot has moved from probable to very likely. They are now closer to third place in the Metro than to being out of the playoffs. The Penguins have to steer clear of a nosedive and keep eyes on Florida and Washington, but with so few games remaining, either of those teams would have to go on an incredible tear.

The Ottawa Senators and Buffalo Sabres staged valiant charges, but weren’t ready for the bright lights and pressure. Next year will be a different story, but we’ll talk about that in the summer.

Conversely, when game-winning goal lights flashed at PPG Paints Arena, they were in the Penguins’ favor. Even when the Rangers scored a controversial third-period goal to tie the game, the Penguins didn’t melt or shrink. They pushed back and won an OT game against a playoff-caliber opponent.

Not a bad two days for the Pittsburgh Penguins.

However, not all is peachy keen. With 16 games remaining, coach Mike Sullivan has more decisions and probably more line-juggling ahead. Alex Nylander will get a chance to cement his place in the lineup, but on which line is probably unsettled.

The top 12 forwards are set, if only because of a lack of options.

5 Pittsburgh Penguin’s Thoughts:

1. Dmitry Kulikov and Jan Rutta are not a good match

With some foreshadowing, PHN noted that Jan Rutta has been good this season, except when paired with Brian Dumoulin. Separately, we noted that Kulikov was similar to Dumoulin. To borrow the ’80s and ’90s comic Richard Jeni’s syllogisms, if Kulikov is like Dumoulin, and Rutta and Dumoulin were terrible together, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised at the anemic possession numbers when the Kulikov-Rutta pairing is on the ice.

And if God is love, and love is blind, Ray Charles is God.

In fairness, “anemic” to is the wrong word to describe the Kulikov-Rutta pairing. “Awful,” “horrendous” or “terrible” would be more apt. The tandem had a 20% shot attempt rate (stat courtesy of Bob Grove) vs. the hapless Philadelphia Flyers, tying the worst mark for Penguins defensemen this season.

The advanced stats jell with the eye test. The pair has a 41.5% shot attempt ratio in four games, spanning 35 minutes. It has a 36% scoring chance rate and a 30% high-danger chance rate.

They’re both playing backward to the net, leaving lots of open ice. Kulikov is learning the system, and Rutta — although he occasionally steps forward — is best as a defensive defenseman.

Rutta looks like he is missing P.O Joseph’s speed and ability to get to loose pucks and push them forward via a pass or skating. It should be noted that the Joseph-Rutta pairing also was underwater with the advanced stats, albeit just slightly.

Unfortunately, moving Kulikov would cause an upheaval. Dumoulin-Rutta would be no improvement. So, the best configuration would put Marcus Pettersson with Rutta, Kulikov with Jeff Petry, and Dumoulin with Kris Letang.

2. Jeff Carter, 4th Line, awful vs. Rangers

Oh sure, as soon as I praise them publicly, they go in the tank. The Kingerski curse! Sorry, boys. The fourth line was OK against Philadelphia Saturday. It had a positive shot attempt rate, although only three attempts, but gave up three scoring chances, compared to just one for itself.

Sunday was an absolute cave-in, an avalanche, a near-whitewash, and costly to the Penguins. All stats are 5v5 and from NaturalStatTrick.com.

Jeff Carter was on the ice for two Penguins shot attempts, but 18 by the Rangers. 18?! And that was in less than 10 minutes of ice time.

Josh Archibald was not on the ice for a Penguins shot attempt. He faced 12 in just under eight minutes. Danton Heinen “only” faced nine attempts in just over seven minutes. He also wasn’t on the ice for an even-strength shot attempt.

The line got into the offensive zone a few times in the first period, but obviously did little with the territory and gave most of it away.

3. No 4C Options

Coach Mike Sullivan seemed to stumble over his options on Saturday. Without Nick Bonino, who is recovering from a lacerated kidney, there’s only one answer.

There was an awkward pause when Sullivan was asked about options, and he said, “Well, you guys know them as well as I do.”

The unfortunate reality is there aren’t options beyond Carter. Ryan Poehling remains out of the lineup, and Sullivan (rightly) prefers O’Connor on the wing.

If Poehling can’t overcome his nagging injury, the Penguins have ZERO center depth.

WBS Penguins center Jonathan Gruden was a non-factor in his big moment earlier this season. Sam Poulin remains away from hockey due to a personal leave.

4. Time is not helping Hextall’s trade deadline grade

The Penguins’ third line is improved without Brock McGinn and Kasperi Kapanen. And Carter. However, Hextall spent all of that found money on Mikael Granlund, didn’t add center depth, and Kulikov isn’t finding his niche very quickly.

Surely, there was a cheap 4C type out there able to sub for Poehling and available for peanuts? Perhaps even a bubble player in the AHL? The Flyers got a sixth-rounder for Patrick Brown (a true bubble player, but one with captain qualities and good offensive stats in the AHL). Toronto picked up Radim Zohorna for another former prospect and bubble player, Dryden Hunt.

Poehling suffered his setback days before Hextall began moving players.

Beginning with Carter, then O’Connor, then … Rickard Rakell? Jake Guentzel?

For a team that has historically not always had both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin healthy at the same time, and otherwise been a chew toy for the injury bug, not fortifying center depth is the definition of living on the edge. And too often, you can’t help yourself from falling.

Kulikov is a good dude and is an NHL defenseman, but was he more necessary than a bottom-six center? It’s not like Carter played well before the deadline. His struggles are not a new development.

5. Yet, Penguins Finding Ways

As much as the third pairing and bottom of the Penguins’ lineup is still a patchwork, the top of it is coming through splendidly. Sidney Crosby was named the NHL’s second star of the week. The Penguins captain put up seven points, including two game-winning goals, in four games.

Jason Zucker is playing like a Tasmanian devil, with high-end offensive skills. Zucker is all over the ice and opponents.

Evgeni Malkin is buckling down. Rickard Rakell is scoring. And Alex Nylander is a fun story, and he might add genuine depth to the Penguins’ top nine. He’s focusing on his defensive game, which might earn a bear hug from Mike Sullivan.

The Penguins didn’t panic in the third period of either weekend game and won both.

“These guys have been through a lot (in their long careers). They’ve been through a lot of experiences. I don’t know that our confidence was ever not there,” Sullivan said Sunday. “For whatever reason, we’ve found ways to lose some games over the course of the year in those situations, but I think lately, for the most part, we’re doing a better job and just trying to play the game the right way, understanding how to manage the puck and manage the game for that matter.”

They found ways to win. We’d be having a different conversation if the Penguins lost in OT Sunday. The above negatives would be under the microscope instead of the rug.

Winning in March cures many things.