Kingerski: Kapanen Overpay, Cap Crunch Forces Another Penguins Move

Count me in favor of most of Pittsburgh Penguins GM Ron Hextall’s moves. I would have paid the higher AAVs on shorter deals for Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin rather than lengthier contracts that could become the 2026 albatross shoving the Penguins into a Randy Robitaille, Brian Holzinger-style retool. Still, the immediate benefits could well salve the pain well in advance.

The Penguins are a better team today than in May when they should have ended the New York Rangers season in Game 5 at Madison Square Garden. The right side of the defense with Letang, Jeff Petry, and Jan Rutta is as good or better than any in the NHL. With the return of Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, and Evgeni Malkin, the top six forwards could shine as brightly as they have in years. The Penguins have a two-time All-Star in net (Tristan Jarry) and a player-connected tactician (Mike Sullivan) behind the bench.

The Penguins have some pieces.

But on Thursday, Hextsall signed enigmatic winger Kasperi Kapanen to a two-year, $3.2 million deal.

The new deal put the Penguins about $1.3 million over the salary cap. Puckpedia has the Penguins at just over 400k above the cap if newly acquired Ty Smith is demoted to the AHL.

Pittsburgh Penguins Comparables

The more the move marinates, the more sour the taste.

*Nino Niederreiter signed for two years, $4 million per in Nashville.

*Dylan Strome — a 22-goal, 48-point center — got $3.5 from Washington.

*Carolina signed Ondrej Kase — a 26-year-old who scored 27 points (14-13-27) with Toronto — to a $1.5 million deal.

Kapanen will be 26 on Saturday and had 32 points (11-21-32) last season. He’ll make double Kase’s salary. Kapanen’s maddening habit of leading the rush, but pulling up at the mid-wall, thus trapping himself, was a bewildering spectacle in the 2021-22 season.

The Finnish forward has a 20-goal season in his rearview mirror, but he wasn’t a useful hockey player to the Pittsburgh Penguins last season. Eventually, head coach Mike Sullivan could not sustain his spot in the lineup, and Kapanen was served a dose of press box nachos.

His ice time and roles diminished to fourth-line duty.

The grand hopes that he would become a star power forward with penalty killing and power play minutes in the NHL became a folly.

Certainly, Kapanen has the talent to be a top-six NHL forward. He’s been on the cusp for most of his career, including in Toronto when he scored 20 goals as a middle-six forward but followed that campaign with a 13-goal season in which he was also demoted to the fourth-line and press box by then-head coach Mike Babcock.

After a handful of NHL seasons, Kapanen was an RFA primed for a show-me deal.

Instead, Hextall made perhaps his first genuine mistake with an overpay. There are always some moves that don’t work out. The GM takes the blame, but if the thought process was sound, it’s just sports. It happens. However, the salary will have been unnecessary even if Kapanen explodes for 30 goals next season.

It’s unlikely an arbitrator would have viewed his last season, cratering production, and gooey soft analytics and awarded Kapanen a raise. Indeed, it is possible but unlikely unless the hearing was held during happy hour.

At 26, Kapanen is about to forge his NHL identity. In four full NHL seasons, he’s been up, down, up, and way down. Babcock and the Toronto org forced him to earn his way into the NHL. He played just 55 games over three seasons from 2015-16 through 2017-18 and was otherwise demoted to the AHL’s Toronto Marlies or sat in the press box.

$3.2 million for two seasons?

Evan Rodrigues and Danton Heinen remain unsigned. Both players likely cost less but produced well more last season. Rodrigues provided the Penguins lineup with unique versatility and 19 goals.

Yet, he remains without a new home.

Salary Cap Ramifications

The Pittsburgh Penguins can also send Drew O’Connor to the WBS Penguins and be about $300,000 under the cap, but that would mean carrying only 12 forwards.

Given that COVID is still a thing that can remove a player just hours before game time, 12 forwards is a precarious proposition. Unwise might be a better term.

So, the Kapanen contract necessarily means someone else goes. Is another Penguins trade in the works? Will the Penguins take the risk and demote a forward or simply sacrifice the eighth defensemen to waivers?

Jason Zucker Buyout?

And before you bring it up, I will: Jason Zucker.

Because the Penguins and Kapanen were headed to arbitration, it counts as an arbitration case. The Penguins will get a second buyout window beginning on the third day (Sunday), lasting 48 hours. In that time, the Penguins could buy out Zucker to save $3.6 million this season, then get hit with a $1.7 million penalty next season.

We discussed the pros and cons of a Jason Zucker buyout in the first window.

Injured players cannot be bought out, but Hextall recently confirmed Zucker was progressing well and would not need additional surgery. That means he’s healthy and can be bought out? That was my inference, but it could be wrong. Zucker often posts to Instagram, and he’s been traveling with family this summer. There’s been nary a mention of rehab or injury.

So, because of the overpay, the Penguins have four choices: Trade, roll with only 12 forwards, likely lose their eighth defenseman (Chad Ruhwedel, Mark Friedman, or P.O Joseph) to waivers, or buyout Zucker.

Since we don’t know what trade might be cooking, we cannot yet say Hextall boxed himself in, but without a trade, the Penguins will be without a serviceable, useable player.

Perhaps Kasperi Kapanen would not have signed a deal that is 500k less, thus allowing the Penguins to be under the salary cap with 13 forwards, but that doesn’t mean the Penguins had to offer more. After a 32-point season, $2.5 million would have been solid.

The Penguins’ overpay for Kapanen will cost them someone else. That’s a mistake.