Penguins Blog: What Could Laine Trade Look Like?

The Pittsburgh Penguins have an open spot for a winger in the top six. Not only does the lineup have an open spot, but it also needs more goals. That’s why a Patrik Laine trade, no matter how improbable, should be on the table.

The 6-foot-5 right wing was recently cleared by the NHL player assistance program and is ready to resume his career somewhere other than with the Columbus Blue Jackets. It’s not acrimonious, but the team and players want a fresh start.

It’s been a few years, but Laine, 26, has 40-goal seasons on his resume, as well as a stick-bending wrister that whistles past goaltenders.

The Penguins finished 18th in goals-for last season, and any hope to improve will necessarily mean scoring more goals. Certainly, the Penguins need to defend leads better, but goals–power play goals and even strength goals–are the paramount need that remains unsolved.

Laine could help immediately.

The NHL free-agent frenzy hasn’t left much meat on the bone. Like piranhas in the Amazon finding dinner, general managers used the raised cap to descend upon July 1 with ferocity. There’s not much left in free agency that could help the Penguins lineup, and it’s not exactly like the best betting sites were keen on the Penguins’ immediate future, anyway.

At the 2024 NHL Draft, Penguins president of hockey operations/GM Kyle Dubas was firm that the team sneaking into the playoffs holds little value to him. Dubas wants to build a contender but is straddling the line between then and now; the language was surprising and undoubtedly raised a few eyebrows among the team.

“We’re not looking to simply squeak into the playoffs. (The goal) is to become a contender as soon as possible,” said Dubas. “Can we do that this season? Can we do that next season? It’s hard to put a timeframe on it, but this is obviously not a stripped-down-to-the-studs situation here, and the people in the room are too good for that.”

And that’s the first obstacle that makes a Penguins-Laine trade nearly impossible but so tempting. Columbus, per their GM Don Waddell, wants future assets in the form of prospects and draft picks, and the Penguins aren’t giving those up at the moment.

Case closed, right? Wrong.

Here’s where some investment strategy could pay off handsomely for the Penguins if they’re willing to gamble.

The gamble would be that Laine could have a bounce-back season. He’s surely got the talent. He’s only 26 (which should put him in the Penguin’s wheelhouse anyway), and a strong season could earn the Penguins a return on their investment.

For example, if Laine is worth a player and a second-rounder (that’s pure speculation) and has a good season playing beside Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, he’ll be worth much more next summer. Or he’s worth a nice contract extension as a 27-year-old who can fill the net.

Adding Laine, and if it works, would indeed advance the cause of returning the Penguins to a contender.

More Penguins Opportunity

The Winnipeg Jets are eating 26% of Laine’s salary cap hit, but only six teams have enough cap space to absorb Laine’s full $8.7 million cap hit. So, unless the Anaheim Ducks, Calgary Flames, Detroit Red Wings, San Jose Sharks, Carolina Hurricanes, or Utah hockey club step up to the plate, Waddell will need to be flexible with salary retention and return.

Editor’s Note: PHN initially published the correct $8.7 million cap hit, but corrected Laine’s salary cap cost to $6.75 million based on incorrect information. We have restored the correct figure $8.7 million and corrected the math in the story.

We can also cross a few of those teams off the list. Detroit is saving its pennies to sign Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond, a pair of young pending RFAs who have earned healthy deals. Importantly, after signing Vladimir Tarasenko, Detroit’s top six is set.

Calgary is headed for a rebuild–a tear-it-down type.

Laine also has a 10-team no-trade list, so could we reasonably cross off Anaheim and San Jose?

Since Columbus already paid Laine’s $2 million signing bonus on July 1, he’ll cost only $7.1 million in real-world salary this season and $9.1 million next season.

That could keep a few smaller market teams like Carolina at bay, too.

Unless Utah leaps forward, the field could be wide open, and that is Dubas’s opportunity. Laine would undoubtedly be a reclamation project, but he would have a reasonably good chance of succeeding within the Penguins’ current roster construction.

Dubas could turn his trade investment into a profit or have a talented player for the long haul who helps him achieve both of his stated goals (get younger, get better).

What will it cost?

The Penguins are playing with about $3.5 million in salary cap space, according to PuckPedia.com. However, Matt Nieto will be able to go on long-term injured reserve, and the Penguins will be able to clear a depth forward such as Emil Bemstrom, raising their cap space to about $5.1 million.

That leaves the Penguins about $3.6 million short.

The small field of suitors should necessarily lower the trade cost. Will Columbus want to eat salary or accept a veteran in return? With the Penguins’ increasingly deep prospect pool, perhaps Dubas will be able to sell high on one and include a veteran salary such as defenseman Ryan Graves and his $4.5 million cap hit for five years.

Our projection for Columbus’s trade return is a “damaged goods” veteran and a second-round value/prospect. They’d like to get more, but we’re a little skeptical.

Dubas has a handful of bigger-name second-tier prospects, from Owen Pickering to Ville Koivunen, who might be enticing. Or one of the Penguins’ future second-round picks. Waddell should be quite familiar with the prospects he gave the Penguins as part of the Jake Guentzel trade.

Perhaps his familiarity with them makes those prospects more attractive.

Of course, as we reported Monday, nothing will happen until the Penguins get Sidney Crosby’s ink on a new contract. But if Dubas needs to dangle a little more incentive to hurry the process along, a Laine trade might show Crosby and the veterans they’re not being taken for granted.

The odds of the Penguins being the successful team are low, especially if a bidding war ensues, but a strong case can be made to do it.