Sports Gambling

UFC 272 Covington v. Masvidal: Expert Predictions, Best Barstool Promos

Published

2 years ago

March 5, 2022

UFC betting, Colby Covington, Jorge Masvidal

Colby Covington faces Jorge Masvidal Saturday evening in the main event of UFC 272. Fight fans: Read that back. And Barstool promos means you can have some fun, risk-free. We checked, Barstool has the biggest payouts.

Oh yes. It’s finally happening.

A grudge match years in the making heads inside the legendary UFC Octagon, as Covington and Masvidal will throw down to settle the score. They’re former teammates –– and former close friends –– and now they’re going to punch each other in the face. You love to see it.

Sports bettors have awaited this matchup eagerly, and for good reason. Covington and Masvidal hate each other –– and they’re two of the best welterweights on the planet. That’s a win all around.

If you want to throw down some cash on this stacked UFC 272 fight card, though, you’ll have plenty to evaluate.

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Since 2019, Covington’s fought four times, going 2-2. Both losses, however, came against UFC welterweight king and debatably the best pound-for-pound fighter on earth right now, Kamaru Usman. No shame there.

Covington’s game is built around pressure and endurance –– not unlike, say, Nick or Nate Diaz –– but his approach is more wrestling-focused in the process. Covington, a two-time Pac-10 champion wrestler at Oregon State, doesn’t look for the quick kill inside the cage. Instead, he wants to wear you down, then drowns you.

Masvidal, meanwhile, wants blood –– and he wants it the moment the fight begins. “Gamebred” posted a 3-2 record since 2019, dropping his last two in a row… both to Usman.

Usman’s pretty good if you haven’t noticed.

So where does that leave this matchup? Well, that’s the fun of betting. You gotta break it down from all angles.

There’s no doubt Masvidal possesses more fight-changing power, as he stopped all three of his opponents (Darren Till, Ben Askren, and Nate Diaz) throughout that legendary 2019 run. His five-second flying-knee knockout of Ben Askren will grace UFC highlight reels for eternity.

Meanwhile, Masvidal has been finished just four times in 15 career defeats (two knockouts, two submissions). He’s a savage, and he’s tough to put away, making him ultra-dangerous at all times inside the cage.

But Covington’s game is built to stifle power and aggression. In 11 wins with the UFC, Covington’s found the finish five times. Take a closer look, though, and you’ll see that just one of those finishes (a Tyron Woodley rib injury ruled a fifth-round TKO victory) occurred in the past five years.

As Covington climbed the welterweight ladder, he refined his pressure-based, play-it-safer style –– and it produced win after win for him. Only Usman’s truly cracked the code. Covington generally avoids damage and keeps his opponent on his heels, dictating the pace and the flow of the fight.

Can Masvidal disrupt that game plan?

Let’s look at this UFC 272 matchup from a betting perspective in our Covington vs. Masvidal betting preview with odds, picks, and predictions.

UFC 272 Main Event Odds

Here is the current line for Covington vs. Masvidal at Barstool Sportsbook:

Moneyline: Covington (-305); Masvidal (+240)

Over/Under rounds: 4.5 (Over -160)

UFC 272 Betting Prediction

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You see those odds. You see the over/under on the rounds. You know exactly what they’re thinking: Colby Covington will control the fight, overwhelm Masvidal with pressure, and win a decision.

And, hey, that’s a smart bet. Masvidal lost 11 times via decision in his career. It’s proven possible to simply outpoint him and win on the judges’ scorecards.

That said…

The UFC 272 Bets We Love

Masvidal to win (+255 – Barstool)

Masvidal to win by TKO (+350 – Barstool)

I’m going there. Covington plays a fine villain and absolutely exaggerates the hate, vitriol, and overall animosity toward each and every one of his opponents. That’s fine. It works for him, it garners attention, and I’m sure the UFC appreciates the added eyeballs on its product.

But Masvidal doesn’t play games.

“Gamebred” will be ready on fight night, and violence will follow. Can I see Covington grinding out a decision win as the odds suggest?

Of course.

But there’s not a lot of betting value there, and there’s simply something in the air with this one. Masvidal gets it done in violent fashion, and…

Round 2 win (+1000 – Barstool) By far the best odds among the sportsbooks.

Masvidal gets it done early.

Round 1 odds (+475) are enticing, too, but Covington is a smart, disciplined fighter. I think Round 1 will be a cautious affair between these two, as they get a feel for each other and for the fight ahead. Neither guy wants to get pasted by his rival in under five minutes, of course.

But in Round 2, Masvidal will know it’s showtime. Allow the fight to sink late into the third round or even into the championship rounds, and you’re giving Covington exactly what he wants. The longer the fight lasts, the more it favors Covington.

Masvidal won’t allow that to happen. I’m seeing some crispy hands putting Covington down and out midway through Round 2 at UFC 272.

Bonus UFC 272 Bet We Love

Edson Barboza (+140) over Bryce Mitchell (-160), KO/TKO/DQ, Round 1

Barboza to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+275)

Winning round: Round 1 (+215)

Bryce Mitchell is a beast. He’s 14-0 as a pro, and 14-0 doesn’t happen for just anyone in a sport as brutal as MMA. The dude is flat-out good.

That said, styles make fights, and Mitchell’s never fought somebody with the explosiveness and power of Edson Barboza. I think Barboza’s sheer speed and athleticism catches Mitchell off-guard early, and that’s all it’ll take for you to cash in the upset pick.