Molinari: Easy Way Out of Cap Trouble Might Not Be Best

The Pittsburgh Penguins are, at least for the moment, over the NHL’s salary-cap ceiling of $82.5 million for the coming season.

Precisely how much depends on how one configures their major-league roster for the start of the regular season, but projections of their violation run from $780,176 for a 23-man group on PuckPedia.com to $1,480,475 on CapFriendly.com for 24 players, which is one over the limit clubs are allowed to carry.

And while Ron Hextall is expected to try to address the overage by attempting to trade a defenseman or two — the Penguins currently have nine NHL-caliber ones on the payroll — there’s no guarantee he will be able to work out one that is favorable.

Or even acceptable.

After all, roughly half of the league’s 32 clubs are above the ceiling or in serious flirtation with it, so it will be a buyer’s market as teams make moves to get into compliance by the end of the preseason.

What’s more, Hextall does not figure to have significant leverage in any trade talks, considering that rival GMs can read depth charts, too, and surely realize that if Hextall doesn’t deal a defenseman, he’ll have no choice but to expose at least one to waivers, and risk the very real possibility of losing that asset for nothing.

Of the nine defensemen who figure to be in the mix for spots on the NHL roster, Ty Smith is the only one still exempt from waivers. He also is the only one with a two-way contract; the final season of his entry-level deal is worth $832,500, but just $70,000 if Smith plays in the American Hockey League.

(Smith’s salary-cap hit actually is $863,333 because of a $92,500 signing bonus that was paid in its entirety during his rookie season.)

His contract and waivers status could put Smith, acquired from New Jersey in the John Marino trade, on a fast track to Wilkes-Barre if he has a lackluster training camp.

That would make it easy for the Pittsburgh Penguins’ front office, but it also would disappoint — and probably surprise — the decision-makers there. Smith, with just two professional seasons on his resume, looks to be far from a finished product, but some in the organization believe he has top-four potential.

Promise doesn’t necessarily equate to productivity, of course, but Smith seems likely to get every opportunity to prove he can contribute to the parent club immediately.

Whether forward Drew O’Connor will be afforded the same is unclear. He is a candidate to fill a bottom-six role and is working on a one-year agreement that pays $750,000 whether he is in the NHL or the minors but, like Smith, would not have to make it through waivers to go to Wilkes-Barre.

That would be a pretty large — and obvious — tiebreaker, should O’Connor end up in a coin-toss battle with someone else for a position with the Penguins.

However, that is the only situation in which a player being exempt from waivers should be a significant factor in deciding whether to pare him from the major-league roster, because an ill-conceived roster move — whatever its intent — could have an impact on the standings.

And that could determine whether, when the regular season ends in mid-April, the Pittsburgh Penguins’ streak of consecutive playoff appearances, currently at 16, is alive.

The top three clubs in each division qualify for a berth in the postseason, as do the seventh and eighth finishers in both conferences. It would be foolhardy for the Penguins, even with what appears to be a somewhat upgraded depth chart, to assume they will be one of the eight to make it in the Eastern Conference.

They had the East’s seventh-best record in 2021-22, and none of the clubs that finished ahead of them figures to unravel this winter. And several that were behind them — Ottawa and Detroit come immediately to mind — look to be significantly better.

That’s not to suggest that the Penguins look to be in immediate peril of plummeting into draft-lottery territory. With the start of training camp little more than a week away, they figure to end up closer to the top of the Metropolitan Division than to its bottom.

However, that assumes a couple of things: 1) That their key players remain reasonably healthy, which has been a recurring issue in recent seasons, and 2) that they consistently deploy the strongest possible lineup, regardless of how much a player earns, or whether he is exempt from waivers.

Making the moves necessary to clear a roster spot for Smith and/or O’Connor, if they prove worthy of one, probably wouldn’t be easy. Hextall might be forced to trade someone he would prefer to keep, or to risk losing a capable role player on waivers.

The Penguins understand how difficult it is to win a Stanley Cup, especially after being jettisoned from the postseason in Round 1 for four years in a row. They also no doubt realize that it’s infinitely tougher — i.e., impossible — to do if you don’t qualify for the playoffs.

And every point earned, or lost, because of personnel decisions could make all the difference in whether the Pittsburgh Penguins give themselves a chance to compete for another championship next spring.