It’s Saturday night and fists will be thrown as UFC 264 will be the highlight on every sports bettor’s calendar, culminating with the heavily anticipated rubber match between Dustin Poirier and “The Notorious” Conor McGregor, who both opened at -107 odds to win. Though FanDuel is offering a 30-1 odds promotion.
Keep that in mind if you need to make UFC 264 more interesting.
The last time either man scuffled in the octagon was the second round between these two titans of MMA, in which Poirier laid a revenge thumping on McGregor in UFC 257 back on Jan 23 in Abu Dhabi.
McGregor got the best of Poirier in their inaugural meeting back in 2014, when the Irishman knocked out the southpaw in the first round, finishing him faster than it takes 20 horses to run a 1 1/8 mile in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
While both men are easily rested – having not seen action in the last six months – it’s worth noting that, since 2016, Poirier has entered the ring seven times (6-1), while the feisty Irishman has registered just three fights with a 1-2 record, including a loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov back in 2018 (Poirier lost to Nurmagomedov on Sept. 7, 2019).
The question of McGregor’s quickness, endurance, and overall readiness for this fight is valid, and while the 5’9, 155 lb southpaw has faster hands than Sidney Crosby with a stick and a mid-air puck, will it be enough to outlast the durability of Poirier, a man who has lost just once in the last five years?
Let’s look at this UFC matchup from a betting perspective in our Poirier vs. McGregor betting preview with odds, picks, and predictions.
UFC 264 Main Event Odds
Here is the current line for Poirier vs. McGregor at DraftKings Sportsbook:
Moneyline: Poirier (-134); McGregor (+105)
Over/Under rounds: 2.5 (U -148)
Click here to get a $1,000 risk-free first bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.
UFC 264 Betting Prediction
Peeling back layer after layer is sometimes good if you want to find a clear and concise result. But if we’re talking onions, let’s just avoid the tears and the stank and call a spade a spade: McGregor is one-dimensional. Poirier, on the other hand, is as durable as they come. He can handle multiple blows, get pushed into the corner, and look out of it, only to rally back stronger, better, and more furious than Michael Myers in every single Holloween movie ever made.
You do not want to bank on the arrogance and money-first mentality that McGregor carries with him into the octagon. Performing once in five years in any sport is a disaster waiting to happen. In MMA, it’s just asking for a pummeling.
McGregor was the best in the world not so long ago. But it’s 2021, cars can drive themselves, the ocean can catch on fire, and Poirier, with his vicious lower-body attack, isn’t shying away from anyone.
The UFC Bets We Love
Poirier to win (-134 – DraftKings)
Poirier to win by TKO (+180 – FanDuel)
I continue to hype up Poirier’s durability in this fight, but only because it’s what carries the fighter through adversity and weaker defense. But one of Poirier’s best attributes is that he packs just as much of a punch as McGregor does these days, and it is that nasty hook that will push him through to victory on Saturday night.
UNDER 2.5 rounds (-148 – DraftKings)
I just do not have any faith in McGregor’s ability to carry on in this fight, knowing his almost blank fighting sheet in the past five years. We all know the man wants to cash that paycheck, though, and he’ll do anything – including taking a nasty beating by Poirier – to do so.