Did you think Monday was going to be a slow day at the sports betting office? The MLB All-Star break is here, and before the AL takes on the NL on Tuesday night, we’ve got the Home Run Derby and favorite Shohei Ohtani to focus on Monday.
Obviously, 500 ft homers are exciting enough, but if you want to make it more interesting, let’s pin our ears back and place some bets on this explosive event.
Eight participants will be swinging for glory at Coors Field in Denver, CO tonight, including 2019’s winner Pete Alonso of the New York Mets, who will look to make it back-to-back titles as last year’s event was canceled.
The biggest spotlight of Monday, however, will be shined upon LA Angels do-it-all superstar Shohei Ohtani, who comes in as the betting favorite (+250, FanDuel).
Ohtani leads all of MLB with 33 home runs in 84 games, while Joey Gallo of the Texas Rangers 24 under his belt.
Due to their size and lefty status, Gallo and Matt Olson of the Oakland Athletics stand as two of the best, and most valuable plays, in this year’s Derby.
Let’s look at this year’s Home Run Derby from a sports betting perspective in our ASG Home Run Derby betting preview with odds, picks, and predictions.
MLB Home Run Derby Odds
Here are the current to win odds from FanDuel:
Shohei Ohtani (+260)
Joey Gallo (+360)
Pete Alonso (+500)
Matt Olson (+500)
Juan Soto (+850)
Salvador Perez (+1100)
Trevor Story (+1100)
Trey Mancini (+1700)
Click here to get a $1,000 risk-free first bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.
MLB Home Run Derby Sports Betting Predictions
It’s critical to understand the dimensions, layout and history of a ballpark to get a firm grasp of who has the best chance of knocking the most dingers out of it.
Coors Field was built in 1992 on top of a giant dinosaur graveyard, in which an entire triceratops was dug up. Despite installing a humidifier in the ballpark, the dry air of the Rocky Mountains continues to make this stadium the top hitter’s ballpark in baseball.
Okay, so maybe you didn’t need to know all of that, but it’s important to note the guys that are built like prehistoric, monstrous carnivores, and Gallo (6-5, 250 lbs) and Olson (6-5, 225 lbs) are the two lefty mammoths we’re looking at.
The fact that both men are left-handed hitters is crucial, due to the power alley in right field.
Olson checks in with 23 blasts this year, hitting in the not-so-friendly home run confines of the Oakland Coliseum. But judging by the tale of the tape, the average power and size of both guys, Gallo, the two seed, appears to be the clear-cut choice, and will likely face the three seed Olson in the semifinals, assuming he gets through Baltimore’s Trey Mancini.
While it is tough to throw away Trevor Story, who will be hitting in his home ballpark, the shortstop’s power has come down recently, with 11 homers to his name so far this season, and the daunting task of facing Gallo in the first round.
On the other side of the bracket, the one seed Ohtani will square off against Washington star Juan Soto, while Alonso battles Salvador Perez of the Royals. This side of the bracket is much weaker, and it looks like Ohtani is a shoo-in for the finals, though we have seen early-round upsets in this new tournament-style format before.
The MLB Home Run Derby Bets We Love
Gallo to win (+360 – FanDuel)
The man is a brick outhouse of a human; a horse with the ability to grip a bat and blast baseballs into the stratosphere. He does play in the AL, and he has only played at Coors Field six times (one home run combined), but he makes up for that lack of ballpark experience with size, power, and the right amount of stamina to outlast three rounds of crushing his fair share of Rawlings’ into the Denver night sky. Gallo is also the owner of this year’s longest home run – a 470 ft moonshot last month. To quote Judge Smails, “the man’s a menace.”
Length of Longest HR Hit – OVER 519.5 ft (-110 – FanDuel)
I know what you’re thinking. A 520-ft home run is damn near impossible. Right?
The “Coors Effect” is a real, tried and true scientific fact that occurs thanks to the fact that air drag increases rapidly with the exit velocity. Add on the fact that the humidifiers will not be operating tonight, and that Giancarlo Stanton once hit a baseball 504-ft in the building during a regular season game back in 2016, I think it’s a pretty clear sign that someone is going to punch one through ozone layer tonight. This bet should cash early.
Salvador Perez over Peter Alonso (+154 – DraftKings)
In the regular season, Perez leads Alonso in home runs by 10 (21 dingers). Not just that, but the Royals’ catcher has been really crushing the ball of late, and he’s one that can spread the ball around the park, with the ability to take advantage of that power alley in right field. Alonso just doesn’t seem to have that power that we’re accustomed to seeing this year, and an early exit from the Derby will be indicative of that.