Molinari: Think Jarry Playing Well is Bad for Penguins? Think Again

CRANBERRY — Tristan Jarry received a lot of criticism — much of it scalding, most of it merited — for his work while the Pittsburgh Penguins were playing their way out of contention for a playoff berth earlier this season.

He entered the season as the Penguins’ undisputed No. 1 goalie, but by mid-January had played his way to their farm team in Wilkes-Barre. But only after the other 31 NHL clubs passed on an opportunity to claim him off waivers.

Jarry’s exile to the American Hockey League ended March 3, when the Penguins recalled him after rookie Joel Blomqvist struggled to compete at this level.

Since his return, Jarry has been skewered by a considerable segment of the Penguins’ fan base, and the issue is performance-based again.

Now, it seems, Jarry is simply playing too well, making it possible for the Penguins to win games that they otherwise might lose, which translates to them moving up in the overall standings.

And to a corresponding drop in the draft order, pending the outcome of the lottery that will determine which team gets the No. 1 choice and the sequence in which other teams will follow.

If the charge is that Jarry has played a prominent role in the Penguins picking up points on a regular basis at a time when their elimination from the Eastern Conference playoff field for the third year in a row is inevitable, he’s not going to have much luck proving his innocence.

Jarry is 4-1 in his five starts since rejoining the Penguins, and has stopped 154 of 166 shots in the process.

He has been playing with a confidence reflected in his aggressive style; he’s routinely moving out to the top of the crease to challenge shooters, rather than hanging back at the goal line.

Jarry looks like he expects to stop every shot that opponents throw at him and, for the most part, he has.

While his goaltending partner, Alex Nedeljkovic, rejected 44 of 47 Columbus shots during the Penguins’ 6-3 victory Friday night, Jarry’s play over the past two weeks is the primary reason that, following practice Saturday at UPMC Lemieux Sports Complex, coach Mike Sullivan said simply that, “Our goaltending has been excellent” of late.

The Penguins (29-32-10) are tied with Anaheim for 25th place in the overall standings, although the Ducks have two games in hand.

If the lottery were being held now — which it isn’t — the Penguins would have a 6.5 percent chance of securing the No. 1 pick.

Should they climb another spot in the league standings, their chance would slip to six percent. Move up two, and they’d go to five percent.

The gradual decline would continue until they hit 22nd place in the standings, which would make them the last club with a mathematical opportunity to win the lottery. Not much of an opportunity, of course, since that team would have just a three percent possibility.

Thankfully, it does not require an advanced degree in Mathematics to appreciate that the difference between having a three percent chance of winning and a 6.5 percent possibility is not that great, at least in a big-picture sense.

Fact is, with 11 teams in contention for the top pick, all of them are long shots. The best odds belong to the last-place finisher, and it will have just a 25.5 percent of winning.

More to the point, while having, say, the seventh pick in Round 1 obviously is preferable to selecting ninth or 10th, dropping down a few slots would be a small price to pay if it means Jarry has regained the form that once earned him recognition as the franchise’s goalie of the future.

While it is much, much too early to determine whether that is the case — five games barely qualify as a snapshot, let alone adequate fodder for a detailed evaluation — Jarry has at least given reason to believe that it is a possibility.

And that could have a much greater impact on the franchise than moving up or down a few places in the draft order.

A consistently strong showing over the final weeks of the season might give management and the coaching staff confidence to think that Jarry could again establish himself as the Penguins’ go-to goalie. Enough, at least, to again have him enter training camp as the clear No 1.

Or, if the decision-makers are committed to casting their long-term lot with a prospect such as Sergei Murashov, Filip Larsson or Blomqvist, Jarry continuing to operate at the level he’s reached this month might get the attention of a team looking to add a capable goaltender, in which case GM Kyle Dubas could trade him.

Regardless of which path the Penguins would choose, the upside of Jarry playing well far outweighs whatever it might cost them in the 2025 draft order.

And might even earn him a few syllables of praise.