Updated Penguins Free Agent Projections; P.O Gets Paid?

Two restricted free agents have new contracts. That’s two down for the Pittsburgh Penguins and one to go.

Last month, Penguins president of hockey operations/GM Kyle Dubas got the equivalent of a Groupon when he signed defenseman Jack St. Ivany to a three-year deal at only $775,000 per year and signed Jonathan Gruden to a two-year deal at the same average annual value.

The Penguins are currently projected to have just under $13 million in salary cap space, meaning they have plenty of space for their internal talent, but if they want them is another matter.

Emil Bemstrom is also an RFA who is due a contract, as are unrestricted depth defenseman Ryan Shean and forward Jansen Harkins. Bemstrom seems to be a prime candidate to become a non-qualified free agent (June 25 is the deadline to submit a qualifying offer to an RFA). After the Penguins acquired Bemstrom near the NHL trade deadline for Alex Nylander, his contributions were limited and his impact minimal. Harkins scored precisely zero goals in 44 games, meaning only Shea seems like a good bet to return.

However, the two most significant NHL contributors who are also due contracts remain unsigned: defenseman P.O. Joseph and goalie Alex Nedeljkovic.

It’s been six weeks since the end of the regular season when coach Mike Sullivan rode Nedeljkovic instead of presumptive starter Tristan Jarry for the final month. The Penguins have had plenty of time to engage and sign Nedeljkovic but haven’t done so.

At this point, the signs point to Nedeljkovic hitting the market on July 1.

According to AFP Analytics, Nedeljkovic’s next contract will be affordable but still a bit steep. AFP’s projection and Pittsburgh Hockey Now’s gut-feel line up almost in sync at two years, $2.3 million AAV.

Nedeljkovic, 28, finished with a .902 save percentage, a healthy 18-7-7 record, and, according to Hockey Reference, a subpar -1.6 goals saved above average. The projected contract represents a modest raise on Nedeljkovic’s $1.5 million salary this season.

P.O Joseph, Penguins Trade

Joseph represents a complicated decision. The restricted free agent could sign a longer-term deal, go to arbitration for a short deal, or anything in between.

Dubas has options, including dragging out the negotiating process to give himself a second buyout window. Per the CBA, teams get a second 48-hour window beginning three days after a player settles or receives an arbitration award. The caveat is the second buyout option only applies to players with a cap hit above $4 million who were on the team at the previous trade deadline.

The Penguins boss did the same last summer when he used Drew O’Connor’s arbitration status as a tool in the Erik Karlsson trade talks. The Penguins needed to clear salary cap space and could have used a buyout to do so, which kept Dubas’s options open. O’Connor signed on Aug. 2, shortly before his arbitration case, and four days later, the Karlsson deal was done, too.

Dubas could use Joseph’s arbitration status to open a second buyout window this summer if he were unable to trade a veteran, such as Reilly Smith, or at least use the possibility as a negotiating tool.

Joseph’s later season resurgence bodes well for his next contract. He was the Penguins top-pairing left-side defenseman, playing heavy minutes with Kris Letang after free-agent signee Ryan Graves repeatedly failed in the role. Graves became a healthy scratch before suffering a concussion, and Joseph excelled on the top pair.

This season, Joseph was in and out of the lineup, both with an injury and as a healthy scratch. He played in 52 games, scoring two goals with 11 points.

It would seem that the soul-crushing arbitration process, in which a team lists all of a player’s flaws and negatives, is the last thing Joseph needs in his career development. He’s had enough hockey people along the way slam his game or downplay his value, and having the Penguins do it to him certainly would not help.

According to AFP, Joseph is in line for a two-year contract with a $1.8 million AAV. Of course, the Penguins could sign the young defenseman to a longer-term deal or roll the dice with the bruising arbitration process, too.

Signing Joseph and Shea to the expected values will reduce the Penguins’ cap space to just above $10 million, which is still plenty of space to acquire talent on July 1.